A handful of western companies was straight off the starting blocks when
India announced in February that it would allow 100 per cent foreign direct
investment (FDI) in real estate.
Boasting
the 12th biggest economy in the world - and the fastest-growing - it was
not surprising that India would attract attention from multinational real
estate groups.
The potential
is enormous with a shortage of 12m housing units in urban areas, the scope
for 400 township projects in five years and the potential for big growth
in the mortgage market, according to Cushman & Wakefield Healey &
Baker.
India is
one of three huge markets - the others are China and Russia - where property
companies which once feared to tread are sizing up big opportunities.
"There is a lot of specific country and political risk in all those
locations, you have to be pretty sure you are taking a careful and informed
bet," says Tony Edgley, chairman of corporate finance at Jones Lang
LaSalle, the property advisory group.
All three
countries pose potential problems and companies are likely to encounter
corruption at some point. In China investors cannot own freeholds but
instead must buy a "right to occupy", which is more like a licence.
In India,
in spite of a loosening of restrictions earlier this year, foreign direct
investment into property must still meet stringent criteria such as a
minimum size of development.
Those which
have entered the market - such as Tishman Speyer or GE Commercial Finance
Real Estate of the US - have usually done so through joint ventures with
local partners.
China, for
all its huge risks, is seen as the most exciting property opportunity
in the world although - for now - most western companies have only dipped
their toes into the market.
Among the
most enthusiastic investors are large opportunistic property funds run
by Apollo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
In July,
Morgan Stanley and Simon Property Group linked up with Szitic Commercial
Property, part of China's state-owned Shenzhen International Trust &
Investment, to develop shopping centres. The venture has plans for 12
projects covering 8m sq metres. Each will be anchored by a Wal-Mart store.
The deal
with Szitic is a reminder of how many multinationals attach great importance
to having experienced local partners in such markets. However, Guy Hollis,
head of Jones Lang LaSalle in China, says partners are not a prerequisite.
"Goldman Sachs has just bought property without a local partner,
as has Macquarie," he says.
Macquarie,
the Australian bank, has bought nine retail malls in what is believed
to be the first step towards setting up a Chinese property fund.
"Many
of the US and Australian private equity groups are doing it themselves,"
says Mr Hollis. "Where it is risky is that tax structures and moving
capital around are not easy in China.
"But
foreign corporates are also seeking opportunities in the industrial market.
With rising labour costs in coastal cities, industry is moving inland,
leading to increased demand around cities such as Xian, Wuxi and Xiamen.
Supply has
increased already, according to research by Jones Lang LaSalle. There
are more than 4,500 industrial parks across China.
ProLogis,
the largest industrial property group in the world, aims to build logistics
parks there. It has already developed facilities in Shanghai, Beijing
airport and Suzhou and it is building 1.4m sq ft of space near Tianjin,
a container port. Arlington, the UK private group, has started to develop
business parks in China.
Foreign investors
are keen to get a toehold there because the economy looks set for galloping
growth. Yet there have been warnings that the pace of development by local
companies could outstrip demand, causing a property glut.
Russia remains
one of the few large, developed economies where international property
investors are reluctant to tread. The perceived dangers are lack of liquidity,
as the investment market is so young, and political risk, not least after
the Yukos saga.
Source : Jim Pickard, Property Correspondent